u/socialistrob
The EU doesn't need nukes but having plentiful air defense systems and interceptor drones would go a long way. Magazine depth is still an issue for a lot of countries too.
Russia launched a full invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. If it's 2027 and we're staring down the barrel of an actual Russian attack on a NATO member I don't want to hear "we don't have air defense systems" or "at this point planes wouldn't help because it takes two years to train pilots."
Again the goal isn't to fight an all out war against all of NATO. The goal is to show that Article V doesn't work and for that all Russia needs to do is take a small part of land and stop. Something like capturing Narva and then offering to give it back if the rest of Europe just stops arming Ukraine. Another alternative might be taking a piece of land in the North of Finland or just launching drone strikes on weapons in European hands headed toward Ukraine.
Yes if all European NATO members start respond with an all out war against Russia then it would be over very quickly but Russia's gamble is that they won't do that because they would rather let Ukraine fall than actually have to fight Russia.
There are a lot of far right nationalists in Russia and even before Putin entered the political scene there were prominent Russians in the 1990s advocating for the invasion of Ukraine. I think sometimes people think that "because Putin is a dictator he must be hated by the Russian people" but that's not necessarily the case. A lot of Russians really do want Russia to be a great power and support Russian imperialism. They may complain about inflation but if Russia had won the war in Ukraine on day three and wasn't sanctioned they would be overjoyed.
People shouldn't rule out Russia trying to escalate against NATO countries as a means of convincing them not to support Ukraine. Fundamentally Putin's problem is that Europe is arming Ukraine and now Ukraine is starting to win on the battlefield. If Putin can't defeat Ukraine on the battlefield as it stands he needs to disrupt the flow of weapons and money from Europe or face the prospect of losing the war and power.
Putin does not want to fight an all out war with NATO but if he can show that Article V is meaningless or that there is a real risk of war with Russia (and thousands of civilian deaths in Europe) then he might have an avenue to winning in Ukraine. This isn't to say "Putin will attack NATO" but merely that the rest of Europe shouldn't disregard the threat simply because "Russia is struggling in Ukraine." Russia struggling in Ukraine actually makes an attack on Europe more likely in my opinion rather than less likely. Europe needs to rearm, invest in the weapons systems that have enabled Ukraine to survive and be ready for a confrontation. The more prepared Europe is the lower the odds Russia tries something. If Russia tries something European countries need to be ready to crush Russia militarily and double down on supporting Ukraine.
