2014–15 Australian region cyclone season: Difference between revisions
m It's not the thought of one, and this is not a common usage, and I can not verify that it is proper (note the word "verify") |
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On 13 July, the TCWC Perth reported that a tropical low had developed about {{convert|860|km|mi|abbr=on}} northwest of the [[Cocos (Keeling) Islands|Cocos Islands]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml|archiveurl=http://webcitation.org/6R6ZHHpzn|title=Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region, 13 July 2014|date=13 July 2014|accessdate=16 July 2014|archivedate=16 July 2014}}</ref> Over the next couple of days the system moved slowly westwards, before it moved out of the Australian region |
On 13 July, the TCWC Perth reported that a tropical low had developed about {{convert|860|km|mi|abbr=on}} northwest of the [[Cocos (Keeling) Islands|Cocos Islands]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml|archiveurl=http://webcitation.org/6R6ZHHpzn|title=Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region, 13 July 2014|date=13 July 2014|accessdate=16 July 2014|archivedate=16 July 2014}}</ref> Over the next couple of days the system moved slowly westwards, before it moved out of the Australian region during 17 July.<ref name="Tracks July">{{cite web|date=September 16, 2014|title=Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: August 2014|publisher=Australian Severe Weather|author=Young, Steve|url=http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2015/trak1407.htm|deadurl=no|archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/6TIWXagSK|archivedate=October 13, 2014|accessdate=October 13, 2014}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 00:52, 8 November 2014
| 2014–15 Australian region cyclone season | |
|---|---|
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | 13 July 2014 |
| Last system dissipated | Season currently active |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Tropical lows | 1 |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2014–15 Australian region cyclone season is an event in the ongoing cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on 1 November 2014, and will end on 30 April 2015. The regional tropical cyclone operational plan defines a "tropical cyclone year" separately from a "tropical cyclone season"; the "tropical cyclone year" began on 1 July 2014 and will end on 30 June 2015.[1]
The scope of the Australian region is limited to all areas south of the equator, east of 90°E and west of 160°E. This area includes Australia, Papua New Guinea, western parts of the Solomon Islands, East Timor and southern parts of Indonesia.[1]
Tropical cyclones in this area are monitored by five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs): the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane; TCWC Jakarta in Indonesia; and TCWC Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea.[1] The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues unofficial warnings for the region, designating tropical depressions with the "S" suffix when they form west of 145°E, and the "P" suffix when they form east of 145°E.
Seasonal forecasts
| Region | Chance of above average |
Average number |
Actual activity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole | 34% | 11 | 0 | |
| Western | 43% | 7 | 0 | |
| North-Western | 38% | 5 | 0 | |
| Northern | 46% | 3 | 0 | |
| Eastern | 42% | 4 | 0 | |
| Southern Pacific | 48% | 15 | 0 | |
| Western South Pacific | 56% | 8 | 0 | |
| Eastern South Pacific | 47% | 11 | 0 | |
| Source: BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[2][3] | ||||
| Region | Normal number |
Number predicted |
Actual activity | |
| NIWA | 10 | 8-12 | 0 | |
| Sources:[4] | ||||
Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2014.[4] The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Nino conditions occurring during the season.[4] The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.[4] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.[4]
In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2014, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year.[2] Each forecast issued took into account the near El Niño conditions that had developed over the region and the El Niño episode that was expected to develop during the season.[2] For the basin as a whole they predicted that there was a 34% chance, that the season would be near its average of around 11 tropical cyclones.[2] For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to the average of 7, with a 43% chance of an above average cyclone season.[2] TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelhood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.[5]
For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below average, with a 38% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity.[2] The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 46% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia.[2][6] The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near normal tropical cyclone season, though it was noted that there was a possibility of a delayed start to the season.[2][7] The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.[3] They predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 55% chance of it being above average.[3] The Western region was predicted to have 39% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 55% chance of being above average.[3]
Seasonal summary
Storms
Tropical Low
| Tropical low (Australian scale) | |
  | |
| Duration | 13 July – 17 July |
|---|---|
On 13 July, the TCWC Perth reported that a tropical low had developed about 860 km (530 mi) northwest of the Cocos Islands.[8] Over the next couple of days the system moved slowly westwards, before it moved out of the Australian region during 17 July.[9]
Storm names
TCWC Jakarta
TCWC Jakarta monitor Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[1] The next name that will be used is Bakung.
| Bakung (unused) | Cempaka (unused) | Dahlia (unused) | Flamboyan (unused) | Kenanga (unused) |
| Lili (unused) | Mawar (unused) | Seroja (unused) | Teratai (unused) | Anggrek (unused) |
TCWC Port Moresby
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[10] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.
| Alu (unused) | Buri (unused) | Dodo (unused) | Emau (unused) | Fere (unused) | Hibu (unused) | Ila (unused) | Kama (unused) | Lobu (unused) | Maila (unused) |
Bureau of Meteorology
Since the start of the 2008–09, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones from.[1] However the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. They monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, issuing special advisories when a cyclone forms in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next name to be used within the basin is Kate.
| Kate (unused) | Lam (unused) | Marcia (unused) | Nathan (unused) | Olwyn (unused) | Quang (unused) | Raquel (unused) |
| Stan (unused) | Tatjana (unused) | Uriah (unused) | Yvette (unused) | Alfred (unused) | Blanche (unused) | Caleb (unused) |
Season effects
| Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damages (AU$) |
Damages (US$) |
Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Wind speed (km/h (mph)) |
Pressure (hPa) | |||||||
| Tropical low | 13 – 17 July | Tropical low | Not Specified | Not Specified | None | None | None | None | |
| Season aggregates | |||||||||
| 1 system | 13 July – Currently active | Not Specified | Not Specified | None | None | ||||
See also
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2014, 2015
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2014, 2015
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2014, 2015
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2014, 2015
- 2014–15 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2014–15 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ a b c d e "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast indian Ocean, 2012 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2013-07-04.
- ^ a b c d e f g h National Climate Centre (13 October 2014). "2014–2015 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 13 October 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ a b c d National Climate Centre (15 October 2014). "2014–2015 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 15 October 2014. Retrieved 15 October 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ a b c d e "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: Near average tropical cyclone numbers for the region is likely, with increased activity from February onward". The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. 15 October 2014. Retrieved 22 October 2014.
- ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (13 October 2014). "Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 13 October 2014. Retrieved 13 October 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (14 October 2013). "Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 16 January 2014.
{{cite web}}: Check|archiveurl=value (help); Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ "Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for The Coral Sea". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 13 October 2014. Archived from the original on 13 October 2014. Retrieved 13 October 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region, 13 July 2014". 13 July 2014. Archived from the original on 16 July 2014. Retrieved 16 July 2014.
- ^ Young, Steve (September 16, 2014). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: August 2014". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on October 13, 2014. Retrieved October 13, 2014.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.